Concept explainers
Quarterly GOP values (cont’d). Refer to Exercise 14.66.
a. Use the simple linear regression model fit to the data to forecast the 2016 quarterly GDP. Place 95% prediction limits on the forecasts.
b. The GDP values given are seasonally adjusted, which means that an attempt to remove seasonality has been made prior to reporting the figures. Add quarterly dummy variables to the model. Use the partial F-test (discussed in Section 12.9) to determine whether the data indicate the significance of the seasonal component. Does the test support the assertion that the GDP figures are seasonally adjusted?
c. Use the seasonal model to forecast the 2016 quarterly GDP values.
d. Calculate the lime series residuals for the seasonal model and use the Durbin-Watson test to determine whether the residuals are autocorrelaled. Use α = .10.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13th Edition)
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