Practical Operations Management
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781939297136
Author: Simpson
Publisher: HERCHER PUBLISHING,INCORPORATED
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Chapter 4, Problem 29P
A
Summary Introduction
Interpretation:Determine the forecast error for the month of April.
Concept Introduction:Forecast error indicates the percent of error in the forecasted value based on the actual outcome.
B
Summary Introduction
Interpretation:Determine the error percent for the month of July.
Concept Introduction: Forecast error indicates the percent of error in the forecasted value based on the actual outcome.
C
Summary Introduction
Interpretation: Determine the Mean Error, mean squared error, mean absolute percent error, mean absolute deviation and tracking signal in this 5-month
Concept Introduction: Using regression, we will be able to define relationship between any two variables, denoting the cause and effect. The method can also be used to forecast the future depending on the past performances.
D
Summary Introduction
Interpretation: Determine the forecast in June as per the 3 month moving average.
Concept Introduction: Forecast error indicates the percent of error in the forecasted value based on the actual outcome.
E
Summary Introduction
Interpretation: Find out the forecast based on the simple exponential smoothing for the month of August.
Concept Introduction: Forecast error indicates the percent of error in the forecasted value based on the actual outcome.
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Students have asked these similar questions
The demand (in number of units) for Apple iPad over the past 6 months at BestBuy is
summarized below.
Month
Nov 2019
Dec 2019
Demand
45
48
Jan 2020
50
Feb 2020
Mar 2020
Apr 2020
42
46
51
Consider the following three forecasting methods:
• Two-month weighted moving average, with weights 6 and 2 (more weight assigned
to more recent data)
Exponential smoothing with a = 0.7. Let the initial forecast for Nov 2019 be 46.
• A trend line projection in the form ŷ = a+bx . To simplify computations,
transform the value of x (time) to simpler numbers – designate Nov 2019 as x=1,
Dec 2019 as x= 2, etc.
(a ) For each of the above methods, forecast the demand of Apple iPad for May 2020.
(b) Consider only the two-month weighted moving average method, compute the
MAD measure and the MSE measure using the data from Jan 2020.
(c) Use the trend line to forecast the demand of Apple iPad for Dec 2020.
Give your opinion regarding the reliability of the forecast.
Clinic administrator Marc Schniederjans wants you to forecastpatient demand at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You
decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this fore-cast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights
of 0.333 on the present period, 0.25 one period ago, 0.25 two peri-ods ago, and 0.167 three periods ago.
a) What is the value of your forecast? PXb) If instead the weights were 20, 15, 15, and 10, respectively, howwould the forecast change? Explain why.
c) What if the weights were 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, and 0.10, respec-tively? Now what is the forecast for week 7?
Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to
forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
Week
6 weeks ago
5 weeks ago
4 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Last week
# Students
83
110
95
80
65
50
What is this week's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .5 and beta = .1, if the
forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last
week's forecast was -5?
49.3
78.7
51.3
50.6
65.4
Chapter 4 Solutions
Practical Operations Management
Ch. 4 - Prob. 1DQCh. 4 - Prob. 2DQCh. 4 - Prob. 3DQCh. 4 - Prob. 4DQCh. 4 - Prob. 1PCh. 4 - Prob. 2PCh. 4 - Prob. 3PCh. 4 - Prob. 4PCh. 4 - Prob. 5PCh. 4 - Prob. 6P
Ch. 4 - Prob. 7PCh. 4 - Prob. 8PCh. 4 - Prob. 9PCh. 4 - Prob. 10PCh. 4 - Prob. 11PCh. 4 - Prob. 12PCh. 4 - Prob. 13PCh. 4 - Prob. 14PCh. 4 - Prob. 15PCh. 4 - Prob. 16PCh. 4 - Prob. 17PCh. 4 - Prob. 18PCh. 4 - Prob. 19PCh. 4 - Prob. 20PCh. 4 - Prob. 21PCh. 4 - Prob. 22PCh. 4 - Prob. 23PCh. 4 - Prob. 24PCh. 4 - Prob. 25PCh. 4 - Prob. 26PCh. 4 - Prob. 27PCh. 4 - Prob. 28PCh. 4 - Prob. 29PCh. 4 - Prob. 30PCh. 4 - Prob. 31PCh. 4 - Prob. 32PCh. 4 - Prob. 1.1QCh. 4 - Prob. 1.2QCh. 4 - Prob. 1.3QCh. 4 - Prob. 1.4QCh. 4 - Prob. 2.1QCh. 4 - Prob. 2.2QCh. 4 - Prob. 2.3QCh. 4 - Prob. 2.4QCh. 4 - Prob. 3.1QCh. 4 - Prob. 3.2QCh. 4 - Prob. 3.3Q
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