Practical Operations Management
Practical Operations Management
2nd Edition
ISBN: 9781939297136
Author: Simpson
Publisher: HERCHER PUBLISHING,INCORPORATED
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Chapter 4, Problem 21P
Summary Introduction

Interpretation: Determine the value of alpha that the company is using to estimate their sales.

Concept Introduction: The procedure of predicting the future value on the basis of the previous prediction and a segment of the errors in the earlier prediction is called as Simple exponential smoothing forecast.

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Imagine you work for a breakfast cereal company that makes prepared products that are served cold. Your company wants to introduce a new hot breakfast cereal that would require some minimal preparation by the consumer. How would you propose forecasting initial demand for this product? Identify one quantitative and one qualitative technique. How do the techniques complement each other?
Consider the monthly sales data of a company for last year as well as first six-month data for current year. Use a three- quarter weighted moving average, Forecast the sales of company for 3rd Quarter of current year. Use Weights of 4/7, 2/7 and 1/7, giving more weight to more recent data. Note, the 1ist quarter is Jan, Feb and March, 2nd quarter is Apr, May, June, 3rd quarter is July, Aug and Sept, and 4th quarter is Oct, Nov and Dec. Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Last Yr 100 125 135 175 185 200 150 140 130 200 225 250 Current Yr 125 135 135 190 200 190
We have a new chief sales officer who is proposing that we should forecast in dollars, not in units/cases. I have never heard of anyone forecasting in dollars. It is true that dollarized forecasts can help sales in knowing precisely what sales target they should be hitting. But, is it the best practice?
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