Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
7th Edition
ISBN: 9781478623069
Author: Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen
Publisher: Waveland Press, Inc.
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Chapter 2.7, Problem 16P
Summary Introduction
To determine: The one-step-ahead predictions for the demand in January 2014 with the use of 3-, 6-, and 12- month moving averages.
Introduction:
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Students have asked these similar questions
The problem is based on the following data given. Observations of the demand for a certain part stocked at a parts supply depot during the calendar year 2013 were ( as shown ).
Compute the one-step-ahead three-month and six-month moving-average forecasts for July through December. What effect does increasing N from 3 to 6 have on the forecasts?
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand
7
9
6
10
12
7
12
12
9
9
8
Part 2
Using exponential smoothing with
α =
0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of
6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place).
Part 3
Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).
The data below represents the quarterly changes in demand for a product over the
next 3 months.
Quarter
Demand
Quarter
Demand
Quarter
Demand
1
120
5
164
9.
180
158
155
10
199
3
164
7
158
11
172
4
160
8.
163
12
170
Apply the following forecasting techniques of the data to estimate the demand in
period 13:
a. Regression;
b. Moving average with base m=3;
c. Exponential smoothing with a = 0.1.
Chapter 2 Solutions
Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Edition
Ch. 2.4 - Prob. 1PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 2PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 3PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 4PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 5PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 6PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 7PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 8PCh. 2.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 2.6 - Prob. 11PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 12PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 13PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 14PCh. 2.6 - Prob. 15PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 16PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 17PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 18PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 19PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 20PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 21PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 22PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 23PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 24PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 25PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 26PCh. 2.7 - Prob. 27PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 28PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 29PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 30PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 31PCh. 2.8 - Prob. 32PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 33PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 34PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 35PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 36PCh. 2.9 - Prob. 37PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 38PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 42PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 43PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 44PCh. 2.10 - Prob. 45PCh. 2 - Prob. 47APCh. 2 - Prob. 48APCh. 2 - Prob. 49APCh. 2 - Prob. 50APCh. 2 - Prob. 51APCh. 2 - Prob. 52APCh. 2 - Prob. 53APCh. 2 - Prob. 54APCh. 2 - Prob. 55APCh. 2 - Prob. 56APCh. 2 - Prob. 57APCh. 2 - Prob. 58AP
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