Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 10, Problem 55P
Summary Introduction
To provide: A correlation matrix that is invalid and explain why it is invalid.
Simulation modeling:
A simulation model is a computerized model that depicts or imitates a real-life situation. It is like other mathematical models except that it incorporates the concept of uncertainty in one or more number of the input variables.
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Practical Management Science
Ch. 10.2 - Use the RAND function and the Copy command to...Ch. 10.2 - Use Excels functions (not @RISK) to generate 1000...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a uniform distribution from 400...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a normal distribution with mean...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a triangular distribution with...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a binomial distribution that...Ch. 10.2 - Use @RISK to draw a triangular distribution with...Ch. 10.2 - We all hate to keep track of small change. By...Ch. 10.4 - Prob. 11PCh. 10.4 - In August of the current year, a car dealer is...
Ch. 10.4 - Prob. 13PCh. 10.4 - Prob. 14PCh. 10.4 - Prob. 15PCh. 10.5 - If you add several normally distributed random...Ch. 10.5 - In Problem 11 from the previous section, we stated...Ch. 10.5 - Continuing the previous problem, assume, as in...Ch. 10.5 - In Problem 12 of the previous section, suppose...Ch. 10.5 - Use @RISK to analyze the sweatshirt situation in...Ch. 10.5 - Although the normal distribution is a reasonable...Ch. 10.6 - When you use @RISKs correlation feature to...Ch. 10.6 - Prob. 24PCh. 10.6 - Prob. 25PCh. 10.6 - Prob. 28PCh. 10 - Six months before its annual convention, the...Ch. 10 - Prob. 30PCh. 10 - A new edition of a very popular textbook will be...Ch. 10 - Prob. 32PCh. 10 - W. L. Brown, a direct marketer of womens clothing,...Ch. 10 - Assume that all of a companys job applicants must...Ch. 10 - Lemingtons is trying to determine how many Jean...Ch. 10 - Dilberts Department Store is trying to determine...Ch. 10 - It is surprising (but true) that if 23 people are...Ch. 10 - Prob. 40PCh. 10 - At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one...Ch. 10 - Simulation can be used to illustrate a number of...Ch. 10 - Prob. 43PCh. 10 - Prob. 46PCh. 10 - If you want to replicate the results of a...Ch. 10 - Suppose you simulate a gambling situation where...Ch. 10 - Prob. 49PCh. 10 - Big Hit Video must determine how many copies of a...Ch. 10 - Prob. 51PCh. 10 - Prob. 52PCh. 10 - Why is the RISKCORRMAT function necessary? How...Ch. 10 - Consider the claim that normally distributed...Ch. 10 - Prob. 55PCh. 10 - When you use a RISKSIMTABLE function for a...Ch. 10 - Consider a situation where there is a cost that is...
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- Software development is an inherently risky and uncertain process. For example, there are many examples of software that couldnt be finished by the scheduled release datebugs still remained and features werent ready. (Many people believe this was the case with Office 2007.) How might you simulate the development of a software product? What random inputs would be required? Which outputs would be of interest? Which measures of the probability distributions of these outputs would be most important?arrow_forwardPlay Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.arrow_forwardAssume a very good NBA team has a 70% chance of winning in each game it plays. During an 82-game season what is the average length of the teams longest winning streak? What is the probability that the team has a winning streak of at least 16 games? Use simulation to answer these questions, where each iteration of the simulation generates the outcomes of all 82 games.arrow_forward
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