What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected?
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Case Study 1: Project Management – Decision Trees
A local toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows:
|
Light Demand |
Moderate Demand |
Heavy Demand |
Probability |
0.25 |
0.45 |
0.3 |
Wind-up action |
$325,000 |
$190,000 |
$170,000 |
Pneumatic action |
$300,000 |
$420,000 |
$400,000 |
Electrical action |
-$400,000 |
$240,000 |
$800,000 |
- What is the ultimate objective in the use of decision trees to product design? How is this objective accomplished?
- Draw the decision tree.
- What is the EMV of each decision alternative?
- Which action should be selected?
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- 2. A toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows. Light Demand 0.25 $325,000 $300,000 -$400,000 Heavy Demand 0.3 Probability Wind-up action Pneumatic action Electrical action Moderate Demand 0.45 $190,000 $420,000 S170,000 $400,000 $800,000 $240,000 a. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? b. Which action should be selected? c. What is the expected value with perfect information? d. What is the expected value of perfect information? e. What is the expected opportunity loss?1. Decision Rules. A company is choosing a motorized mechanism for a new toy, a dancing ballerina (TippiToes) that is currently under development. Demand is uncertain. but the company is confident that demand will be: Light (25,000 units), Moderate (100,000 units) or Heavy (150,000) units. The payoff table for each mechanism (in $) is given below. Action: Choice of Mechanism Event Gears and Levers Spring Weights and Pulleys Pneumatic Light 25,000 -10,000 -125,000 -300,000 Moderate 400,000 440,000 400,000 300,000 Heavy 650,000 740,000 750,000 700,000 Questions: (1) Apply Maximax, Maximin, Minimax Regret, and EMV rules (assuming that the probability of Light demand is 0.1, Moderate demand is 0.7, and Heavy demand is 0.2) to decide what mechanism should the company choose? (2) What is the expected value of perfect information? (3) Draw a decision tree to solve this problem.A local toy manufacturer has three different mechanisms that can be installed in a doll that it sells. The different mechanisms have three different setup costs (overheads) and variable costs and, therefore, the profit from the dolls is dependent on the volume of sales. The anticipated payoffs are as follows: Light Demand Moderate Demand Heavy Demand Probability 0.25 0.45 0.3 Wind-up action $325,000 $190,000 $170,000 Pneumatic action $300,000 $420,000 $400,000 Electrical action -$400,000 $240,000 $800,000 What is the ultimate objective in the use of decision trees to product design? How is this objective accomplished? Draw the decision tree. What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected?
- A company that makes food-friendly silicone (for use in cooking and baking pan coatings)is considering four independent projects shown, all of which can be considered to be viable for only 10 years. The company's MARR is 15% per year. Project A B C D First Cost, $ -1500 -2300 -5600 -7600 Annual net Income, $/year 200 460 1150 1200 Salvage value, $ 5 6 8 7 Determine which products to implement Financial values are in $1000 units. The present worth of project A is $___________, So project A is ___________(Rejected / Accepted) The present worth of project B is $___________, So project B is ___________(Rejected / Accepted) The present worth of project C is $___________, So project C is ___________(Rejected / Accepted) The present worth of project D is $___________, So project D is ___________(Rejected / Accepted)Gamers Empire is considering marketing one of two new video games for the coming holiday season: Aliens Kidnapped My Dog or Ninjas vs. Pirates. Aliens Kidnapped My Dog does not appear to have any competition as it is a unique game. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) under high, medium and low demand are as follows: Demand Aliens Kidnapped My Dog High Medium Low Profit $1100 $800 $400 Probability 0.3 0.4 0.3 Gamers Empire is optimistic about Ninjas vs. Pirates. However, the concern is that profitability will be affect by their competitor Samurai Games releasing a similar title called Samurai vs. Robots. Estimated profits (in thousands of dollars) with and without competition are as follows: Demand Ninjas vs. Pirates with competition High Medium Low Profit $900 $500 $300 Probability 0.3 0.3 0.4 Ninjas vs. Pirates without competition Profit $1700 $900 $500 Probability 0.5 0.2 0.3 a) Construct a decision tree. b) Calculate the EMVs and state your decision if there is a 75%…Ana Chavarria, front office manager of The TimesHotel, and Lorraine DeSantes, the hotel’s director ofmarketing, learn their city will be hosting the nextOlympic Games. The city council and the tourismboard are planning to develop a program to ensurethe delivery of high-quality service by all agencies,private and commercial, to the many guests. Individual groups (hotels, restaurants, public transportation, etc.) will meet and decide on a course of action.Margaret Chu, general manager of The Times Hotel,wants Ana and Lorraine to represent the hotel onthe Hotel Hospitality Commission. Because theGames are several years away, there is ample time toinvolve various constituencies in developing a planfor implementation.After a few meetings with the commission, thegroup feels it should break into smaller teams todiscuss developing specific components of deliveringhigh-quality service. Ana and Lorraine are heading the Service to the International Visitor planningteam. What suggestions would you…
- Problem 1. During your first month as an employee at Greenfield Industries (a large drill- bit manufacturer), you are asked to evaluate alternatives for producing a newly designed drill bit on a turning machine. Your boss' memorandum to you has practically no information about what the alternatives are and what criteria should be used. The same task was posed to a previous employee who could not finish the analysis, but she has given you the following information: An old turning machine valued at $350,000 exists (in the warehouse) that can be modified for the new drill bit. The in-house technicians have given an estimate of $40,000 to modify this machine, and they assure you that they will have the machine ready before the projected start date (although they have never done any modifications of this type). It is hoped that the old turning machine will be able to meet production requirements at full capacity. An outside company, McDonald Inc., made the machine seven years ago and can…What are the five major dimensions of feasibility study? What are three examples of activities performed during the planning phase?Read and analyze the following article. Manila Bay Beach Nourishment Project After years of being known for its polluted waters, Manila Bay suddenly got a facelift as the government decided to take a big risk by overlaying mounds of artificial white sand (dolomite) on a part of the bay's naturally gray shoreline. This project, which is spearheaded by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), was instantly met with harsh disapproval. In September, the overlaying of the dolomite in Manila Bay beach or the beach nourishment project caught public attention, stirring curiosity and setting off waves of people flocking to the area to get a glimpse of the "white sands". Many criticized the project, throwing allegations at the DENR, calling the project a health hazard and a waste of public funds. But the DENR emphasized that the beach nourishment with the use of dolomite is a significant component of the rehabilitation aimed to protect the coastal resources in the area and…
- Please see the question and scenario.A hotel is runned by a manager and the owners propsoed a new proposal to increase their sales and if the manager does increases the sales they will pay him addiotional 10k but if they stick to their current situation what are the pros and cons, List 4 pros and 4 cons for status quo.“To cut the number of projects, the steering committee used a weighting scheme that reflected theairline’s priorities, which were: fly safe, generate revenue, reduce costs, and customer service. Theweighting scheme easily weeded out the fluff.”Use a weighted scoring model to help the committee choose between two projects: Booking SystemUpgrade and Cabin Crew Retraining. The relative weights for each criterion and the assessment ofeach project for these criteria are shown in the following table. Which project would you choose andwhy? (See extract attached to assist) (Assume 10 represents the preferred score and 1 represents the undesired score.) Criteria Weight Booking System Upgrade Pilot Crew Retraining Fly safe 40 4 10 Generate revenue 30 9 9 Reduce costs 20 7 8 Customer service 10 10 10