Vicuña are ungulate herbivores related to llamas that occupy high mountain grasslands in the Andes. They are valued for their wool. Overhunting led to global population declines from millions in the 1500s to thousands in the mid 1900s. Lauca National Park was established in Chile in 1970 and banned hunting of vicuña. Researchers used census data (solid circles) to fit the population dynamics, and evaluated two models: one in which the carrying capacity was fixed over time (“Logistic Constant K”, dashed line), and one in which the carrying capacity could vary over time (“Logistic Variable K”, solid line). See attached image The researchers found that rainfall ~4 years prior was a good predictor of the population size of vicuña in a given year. Is rainfall four years before 1990 likely to be lower than average or higher than average? Why?

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Vicuña are ungulate herbivores related to llamas that occupy high mountain grasslands in the Andes. They are valued for their wool. Overhunting led to global population declines from millions in the 1500s to thousands in the mid 1900s.
Lauca National Park was established in Chile in 1970 and banned hunting of vicuña. Researchers used census data (solid circles) to fit the population dynamics, and evaluated two models: one in which the carrying capacity was fixed over time (“Logistic Constant K”, dashed line), and one in which the carrying capacity could vary over time (“Logistic Variable K”, solid line).

See attached image

The researchers found that rainfall ~4 years prior was a good predictor of the population size of vicuña in a given year. Is rainfall four years before 1990 likely to be lower than average or higher than average? Why?

Number
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1975
Pandanga
1980
1985
1990
Year
Total vicuñas (census data)
Logistic Constant-K
Logistic Variable-K
1995
2000
2005
Transcribed Image Text:Number 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 1975 Pandanga 1980 1985 1990 Year Total vicuñas (census data) Logistic Constant-K Logistic Variable-K 1995 2000 2005
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