January 2100 February 2500 March 2550 Assume that you found an average monthly geometric rate of change in rooms sales from the month of January to March be equal to 5%. What would be your forecast of rooms sales for the month of April if sales are expected to continue increasing at
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QWE Inn has recorded the following number of rooms sold for the first quarter of the year:
|
January |
2100 |
|
February |
2500 |
|
March |
2550 |
Assume that you found an average monthly geometric rate of change in rooms sales from the month of January to March be equal to 5%. What would be your
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- For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for α = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? What is the forecast for next month?Bell Greenhouses has estimated its monthly demand for potting soil to be the following: Assume this trend factor is expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future. The following table contains the monthly seasonal adjustment factors, which have been estimated using actual sales data from the past five years: MONTH ADJUSTMENT FACTOR (%) March +2 June +15 August +10 December -12 Forecast Bell Greenhouses' demand for potting soil in March, June, August, and December 2007. If the following table shows the forecasted and actual potting soil sales by Bell Greenhouses for April in five different years, determine the seasonal adjustment factor to be used in making an April 2008 forecast. YEAR FORECAST ACTUAL 2007 500 515 2006 452 438 2005 404 420 2004 356 3803. Covid Co. has the following monthly sales in 2020: Sales (000 units) Month Sales (000 units) Month January 567 July 522 February 231 August 752 March 610 September 645 April 309 October 229 May 736 November 456 June 380 December 700 a. Plot the monthly data. b. Forecast September sales volume using the following: 1) A linear regression 2) A 6-month moving average 3) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.20 and assuming a March forecast of 600,000. 4) The naïve approach 5) A weighted average using 0.7 for Dec, 0.2 for November and 0.1 for October. 6) Correlation c. Which method in b) is the MOST appropriate method to be used? Why?
- Using the following Quarterly Sales Demand Data; read and answer the questions listed below. Quarter # Actual Sales (dollars) 1 1416 2 1398 3 1274 4 1167 Calculate the average quarterly Seasonal Index value? (rounded to 2 decimal places). Calculate the total sales if there is a 35% total annual sales decrease next year? (rounded to the nearest whole number) Calculate the Seasonal Index value for Quarter 3? (rounded to 2 decimal places)The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows: Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Sales 20 21 17 12 15 15 15 19 22 22 23 24 This exercise contains only parts b and c. b) The forecast for the next month (Jan) using the naive method = sales (round your response to a whole number). The forecast for the next period (Jan) using a 3-month moving average approach = sales (round your response to two decimal places). The forecast for the next period (Jan) using a 6-month weighted average with weights of 0.10, 0.10, 0.10, 0.20, 0.20, and 0.30, where the heaviest weights are applied the most recent month = sales (round your response to one decimal place). Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.35 and a September forecast of 18.00, the forecast for the next period (Jan) = sales (round your response to two decimal places). Using a method of trend projection, the forecast for the next month (Jan) = sales (round your response to two decimal places). c) The method…Monthly sales of storage sheds at Wallace Garden supply are shown in the following table. Using the 3-month moving average forecasting method (simple average), what is your forecast of December sales? Actual Month Sales January February March April May June July August September October November December? O 15.2 16.7 20.67 O None of the above 10 12 16 13 17 19 15 20 22 19 21
- The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold) for a college textbook over the past three years are as follows: a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Use a regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data: Qtr1 = l if quarter l, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = l if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. c. Based on the model you developed in part (b), compute the quarterly forecasts for next year. d. Let t = 1 to refer to the observation in quarter 1 of year 1; t = 2 to refer to the observation in quarter 2 of year 1; ; and t = 12 to refer to the observation in quarter 4 of year 3. Using the dummy variables defined in part (b) and t, develop an equation to account for seasonal effects and any linear trend in the time series. e. Based upon the seasonal effects in the data and linear trend, compute the quarterly forecasts for next year. f. Is the model you developed in part (b) or the model you developed in part (d) more effective? Justify your answer.Sales last year during June were $20,000. Sales this June were $21,500. What percentage increase or decrease in sales has occurred? If this trend continues, what sales should be forecast for next June? Please include your calculation procedure.The Toro Cutlery Company has collected monthly sales information below: MONTH MONTH May January February June March April SALES 15,000 18,000 33,000 115,000 SALES 77,000 30,000 80,000 44,000 MONTH September October November December SALES 34,000 101,000 68,000 84,000 July August The company is examining two forecasting methods, moving average and exponential smoothing for forecasting sales. a. What will the forecast be for January the following year using a three-, four-, and five-month moving averages? Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest whole number. Forecast (January, 3-month MA): Forecast (January, 4-month MA): Forecast (January, 5-month MA): b. What will the forecast be for January the following year using exponential smoothing with a = 0.4? Assume the forecast for February this year is 15,000. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to the nearest whole number.
- Lewellen Products has projected the following sales for the coming year: 01 02 03 04 Sales $940 $1,020 $980 $1,080 Sales in the year following this one are projected to be 20 percent greater in each quarter a. Calculate payments to suppliers assuming that the company places orders during each quarter equal to 30 percent of projected sales for the next quarter. Assume that the company pays immediately. What is the payables period in this case? (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answers to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.) b. Calculate payments to suppliers assuming a 90-day payables period. (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answers to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.) c. Calculate payments to suppliers assuming a 60-day payables period. (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answers to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.) a. b. Payment of accounts Payment of accounts Payment of accounts 01 02 Q3 Q4Given: Month Total Sales/month November December January February March P1,500 8,000 6,000 7,200 8,600 Requirements: (Show solutions) 1. What is the growth rate per month? 2. What is the Average growth rate? 3. Forecast for the next 6-month the Total Sales, based on the above previous sales performance.JoAnn Manufacturing has projected the following sales for the coming year: Sales $25,847.50 C$25,182.50 $22,604.17 Q1 $23,560.83 Q2 $ 54,750 $ 61,850 Q3 The company places orders each quarter that are 35 percent of the following quarter's sales and has a 30-day payables period. What is the payment of accounts for the third quarter? $70,050 Q4 $75,750
