Steve Zadro - Climate Change Module
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School
Illinois State University *
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Course
102
Subject
Geography
Date
Jan 9, 2024
Type
docx
Pages
8
Uploaded by ProfMusicGorilla41 on coursehero.com
Project EDDIE: CLIMATE CHANGE
Student Handout
This module was initially developed by O’Reilly, C.M., D.C. Richardson, and R.D. Gougis. 15 March 2017. Project EDDIE:
Climate Change. Project EDDIE Module 8, Version 1.
http://cemast.illinoisstate.edu/data-for-students/modules/climate-
change.shtml
. Module development was supported by NSF DEB 1245707.
Learning objectives:
To analyze global temperature data to see if Earth’s average global temperatures are really
increasing
To analyze CO
2
data to see if atmospheric levels are really increasing
To correlate CO
2
data with global temperature to see if there is a relationship
To compare current trends with rates of change during pre-historic periods using ice core data
To interpret what these results mean for understanding current climate change
To learn basic shortcuts and graphing in Excel
Why this matters:
Current climate change is affecting many aspects of the environment, with socio-
economic consequences. For example, a warmer climate can allow new diseases to be introduced and
persist (e.g. West Nile became established in the United States after an unusually warm winter allowed
the mosquitos that carry the virus to survive and spread). We are concerned not only with the actual
temperature, but also with the rate that the temperature changes. Very rapid changes make it more likely
that species (maybe even including humans!) cannot adapt and will go extinct.
Outline:
1.
Discussion of papers read for class and Power Point presentation
2.
Activity A: Determine current rates of air temperature and CO
2
change from modern datasets.
3.
Activity B: Explore whether temperature and CO
2
concentrations are related.
4.
Activity C: Compare current rates to pre-historical rates of change using data from an ice core to
investigate how climate has changed in the past.
The Excel sheet posted in Canvas has ALL data downloaded for you!!
The steps that direct you to
download the data are for reference ONLY!!
You do NOT need to download any from this sheet.
1
Activity A:
How much are temperature and atmospheric CO
2
changing?
Changes in air temperature -
Scientists from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA,
compiled temperature datasets from weather stations all over the world to create the dataset you are
going to be working with today to answer the question: Is earth “warming”? The data you will use are
from years 1880-2013.
1.
Before you conduct your analysis, you should first make your predictions. What slope would
indicate a warming Earth? What slope would indicate Earth’s average global temperature was not
changing? What slope would indicate a cooling Earth? Sketch lines in the axes below to show
what the expected slopes would be in these different scenarios.
cooling
warming
no change
2.
Getting the air temperature data: These data are compiled by the Goddard Institute for Space
Studies, NASA, and are made available via the Earth Policy Institute.
http://www.earth-
policy.org/data_center/
Select Climate, Energy and Transportation. The dataset you are looking
for is called something similar to “Average Global Temperature, 1880-2014 (Celsius)”, about 15
rows down. Download this excel file and save on your computer in a location where you can find
it again (the Desktop is a good option).
3.
Open up the dataset. Make a scatter plot of temperature change over time.
4.
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
12.80
13.00
13.20
13.40
13.60
13.80
14.00
14.20
14.40
14.60
14.80
f(x) = 0.01 x + 1.12
R² = 0.77
Tempature (C) vs Time
Years
Temp(C)
o
C
o
C
o
C
time
time
time
2
5.
Now, determine the rate of change. Determining rates of change graphically is straightforward.
The average rate of change is just the change in temperature divided by the change in time, or
change in y divided by the change in x, or the slope of a line that fits through the data. These are
all the same thing. Luckily, Excel can calculate the slope of a line very easily. So, to determine
the rate of change (slope) add a trend line. When you do this, make sure to select the options to
show the equation of the line and the R
2
value. The equation is written in the form
y = mx + b
,
where
m
is the slope and
b
is the intercept. The value for
m
is the rate of change.
The R-squared (R
2
) is a statistic resulting from a linear regression analysis, which is the
statistical name for what you just did by adding a trend line. It describes the proportion of
variation in the dependent variable explained by the independent variable. When R
2
~1, the data
form a perfectly straight line. As the data become more scattered from the line, R
2
decreases
toward 0. Higher R-squared values indicate a stronger relationship between the two variables.
Record your R
2
value down with your slope.
a.
Equation for the line:
y = 0.0066x + 1.1197
b.
R
2
=
0.7662
c.
Rate of air temperature change (include units):
0.0066
d.
Given your analysis, is Earth warming? How do you know?
Yes, clearly since 1880 the
earth has been slowly rising in average temperatures but it has gone up faster since
the 1960’s and after.
6.
Many scientists claim that drastic changes in global temperature began in the mid-1900s when
fossil-fuel-powered transportation became a mainstay for most families. Test this hypothesis by
adjusting your trendline so that it only looks at the most recent decades, after personal
transportation became common. You can do this by:
Decide on the year in the mid-1900s that you want to begin the trendline. Scroll to that
year and select the data (year and temperature) from that year all the way to the most
recent year.
Create a Scatter plot just as you did before, and add a trendline with the R
2
.
Write your answers for (a) and (c) on the board to compare with others.
a.
Equation for the line:
b.
R
2
=
c.
Rate of air temperature change (include units):
d.
Compare the slopes of these two lines (1880 through mid-1900s versus mid-1900s
through 2013). Does your analyses support the hypothesis that the rate of global average
temperature is greater since the 1950s?
3
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