ENR 2000 Poster Final - Katie Roush

How does climate change impact the glaciers in the United States National Park? Human Impact on National Parks Katie Roush (roush.305@buckeyemail.osu.edu), Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (USA) ABSTRACT The United States is home to national parks. National parks, such as Glacier National Park have many glaciers. These glaciers have been a reason to visit the parks; to see the beautiful geographic formations that are thousands of years old. 3 Global warming has tremendously affected glaciers in the United States National Parks. With the rising temperatures due to global warming, glacier volume has depleted. Further, many of these glaciers have become extinct. Glaciers, such as Grinnell Glacier, once covered a massive amount of land and are now significantly smaller. Scientists have completed many measurements to calculate the size of the glaciers. Aerial photographs are used to capture pictures of the glaciers. 4 These pictures can be used to calculate the area of the glaciers. 4 The area of present glaciers are compared to older areas to find the change in area size. To predict future volume of glaciers, formulas and graphs can be used. 2 These formulas factor in time and temperature to find the volume output. If global warming continues and the temperature increases at the same rate, then glaciers in these National Parks will become extinct. Lower emission efforts are a way for humans to combat greenhouse gases, global warming, and rising temperature. 5 By burning fewer fossil fuels, less green house gases will collect in the lower atmosphere and the temperature will experience less change. This is detrimental to glacier volume. Global warming must be slowed to maintain glaciers in the United States National Parks. Figure 1. Photographs taken from the same point in Glacier National Park of the Grinnell Glacier in 1910 and 2009, 88-year difference. The deterioration of the glacier is clear. Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park, 1850 – 2100. BioScience. Vol 53. 2003. https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/53/2/131/254976?login=true . Figure 4. Levels of Emission and Temperature Change MATERIALS & METHODS To determine the change in glacier area in the National Parks, an aerial photo analysis can be used. 4 By measuring the area in 1996 of these glaciers and comparing this area to recent, 2005, area, then the difference in glacial area can be calculated. 4 Upon noting the area change, percentage of area change is calculated. 4 The percentage shows the amount that the glaciers have been changing due to global warming. RESULTS Glaciers in National Parks have steadily decreased. This decrease in area is negatively correlated to the rise in temperature. In Glacier National Park, the glaciers have seen a tremendous amount of depletion. The average summer temperature in 1990 was 16.61 degrees Celsius and in 1990 the area of the glaciers was 5.05km. 2,3 The change can be seen in 2020, when the average summer temperature increased to 17.66 degrees Celsius, and the area decreased to 0.62km. 2,3 These calculations show the direct correlation between changing temperature and the effect on glacial area. THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY INTRODUCTION The glaciers in the United States National Parks formed over 6,500 years ago. These glaciers are significant for many different aspects within the National Parks. They provide habitats, resources, and show history of geographic formations and activities from thousands of years ago. These important geographic formations have significantly decreased in recent years. A major cause of the depletion of the glaciers in the National Parks is global warming. 2 Global warming is a type of climate change in which the global temperature rises. 1 Global warming is caused through human actions, such as burning fossil fuels. 1 This burning produces carbon dioxide, which traps infrared radiation – heat. 1 The heat raises the lower atmospheres and cools the upper atmosphere. The rise of temperature causes glaciers to retreat, the ice does not have the cool temperature to maintain its size and shape. If global warming continues, then it is possible for all glaciers in National Parks to become extinct by the end of the 21 st Century. Figure 1. Historic and Recent photos of Grinnell Glacier Figure 3. Sperry Glacier Volume Over Time as Affected by Differing Temperatures RESEARCH QUESTION How does global warming impact the glaciers in the United States National Parks? Figure 2. Graph Showing Glacier size change from 1996 to 2005 FUTURE WORK In 1850, 150 glaciers were present in Glacier National Park. 4 Today, there are only 25. 4 This decrease is heavily influenced by the rise in temperature due to global warming. Many glaciers are projected to be extinct by the end of the 21 st century. 2 To stop the glacier volume decrease, there must be action taken to address and slow global warming. To slow global warming, human actions, such as fossil fuels are needed to slow, or stop. The future temperature will depend on the increase in greenhouse gas concentration and natural climate events. Humans can control the greenhouse gas concentrations. There are many proposed plans to slow global warming. The highest emission pathway (RCP 8.5), higher emission (RCP 6.0), lower emission (RCP 4.5), and lowest (RCP 2.6). 5 By choosing a lower or lowest pathway, the temperature increase will slow due to less greenhouse gases trapped in the atmosphere. 5 With more action taken, fossil fuel emissions lower, resulting in slower increase in temperature, and in turn, a slower decrease in glacier volume. 1. Spencer, R.W. How Serious is the Global Warming Threat?. Soc 44, 45 – 50 (2007). https://doi- org.proxy.lib.ohio-state.edu/10.1007/s12115-007-9002-3 2. Joel Brown, Joel Harper, Neil Humphrey. Cirque glacier sensitivity to 21st century warming: Sperry Glacier, Rocky Mountains, USA. Global and Planetary Change. Volume 74, Issue 2. 2010, Pages 91-98, ISSN 0921-8181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.09.001. 3. Myrna Hall et al. (201-) Modeled Climate-Induced Glacier Change in Glacier National Park, 1850 – 2100. BioScience. Vol 53. Pg. 131-140. 4. Goff, P., & Butler, D. R. (2016). James Dyson (1948) Shrinkage of Sperry and Grinnell Glaciers, Glacier National Park, Montana. Geographical Review 38(1): 95 – 103. Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, 40(4), 616-621. https://doi-org.proxy.lib.ohio- state.edu/ 10.1177/0309133316652820 5. United States Environmental Protection Agency. Future of Climate Change. City of Chicago. Page 1. https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-change REFERENCES RESEARCH QUESTION How does global warming impact the glaciers in the United States National Park? Global warming has a direct impact on the volume of the glaciers in the United States National Park. 3 There has been a significant decrease in the volume of the glaciers the past-century due to rising temperatures because of global warming. 2 To combat this, action must be taken to slow global warming by lowering emissions. 5 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 GLACIER SIZE (M) 1996 TO 2005 Change in Glacier Size from 1966 to 2005 Grinnel Glacier Sperry Glacier The figure shows a graph of the decrease in glacier size of two glaciers, Grinnell Glacier and Sperry Glacier from 1996 to 2005. Grinnell Glacier’s area decreases from 1,020,009 meters squared to 615,454 meters squared. The size of the Sperry Glacier decreases from 1,339,244 meters squared to 874,229 meters squared. Figure created by Katie Roush. The data for the graph is from Shrinkage of Sperry and Grinnell Glaciers, Glacier National Park Montana by Goff, P. . https://doi- org.proxy.lib.ohio- state.edu/10.1177/03091333166 52820 Figure 3 shows the direct affect of temperature on the volume of the Sperry glacier. The greater the temperature, the faster the volume of the glacier decreases. The figure shows that if the temperature increases by any number greater than 1, then the Sperry glacier will be completely melted by 2100. Since the beginning of the 20 th century, the Sperry glacier has experiences a volume decrease of about 78% of it’s area. 2 This change is due to an approximate temperature increase of about 0.8 degrees Celsius. Therefore, if the temperature experiences more than a 0.4 Celsius increase, then the glacier will deplete rapidly. 2 The figure is from Joel Brown, Joel Harper, Neil Humphrey. Cirque glacier sensitivity to 21st century warming: Sperry Glacier, Rocky Mountains, USA. Global and Planetary Change. Volume 74, Issue 2. 2010, Pages 91-98, ISSN 0921- 8181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha. 2010.09.001. The figure shows the projected temperature change in the United States based on the emission scenario. The top is the higher emissions scenario, it shows that the change in temperature will be about 7 degrees Fahrenheit mid-century and 11 degrees Fahrenheit end of century. However, the lower emissions scenario projects a 5-degree Fahrenheit change mid century, and a 7 degree change Fahrenheit end century. These numbers are a representation of how lowering emissions can slow the change in temperature. The table information is from United States Environmental Protection Agency. Future of Climate Change. City of Chicago. Page 1.https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-change- science/future-climate-change UNITED STATES TEMP CHANGE/LEVEL OF EMISSION DATA Mid Century End-of-Century Higher Emission 7 Degrees Fahrenheit Change 11 degrees Fahrenheit Change Lower Emission 5 degrees Fahrenheit Change 7 Degrees Fahrenheit Change