a. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of 0.4 for the most recent period, 0.3 for the next most recent, 0.2 for the next, and 0.1 for the next. (Round all your answers to two decimal points.) Forecast Period 5 Forecast Period 6 b. If the actual demand for period 6 is 65, forecast demand for period 7 using the same weights as in part a. Forecast Period 7
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- Forecast sales for the 7th period. For leveling, use exponential smoothing 0.20 and moving average 3 for averaging; and linear and exponential functions for trend data. Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 if you decide to use it (i.e., no forecast for period 1). Period Demand 1 67 2 72 3 68 4 20 5 70 6 66 7 68b. Kim’s department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over thelast nine weeks. The demand can be seen in the table below.Period Demand1 242 233 264 365 266 307 328 269 25i. Forecast demand using exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.3, and an initialforecast of 30.0 for period 2 to 9.ii. Use a 5-period moving average, forecast the demand up to period 9.iii. Using MAD, determine which forecasting technique is better.National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a seven-month period is reported below: Sales (1000 units) Forecast Observation Month Yt Ft 1 February 19 2 March 18 3 April 15 4 May 20 5 June 18 6 July 22 7 August 20 8 September ? Use Excel to plot the data and forecast September sales using the following methods: The naïve forecast A three-month moving average Exponential smoothing with a smoothing coefficient of α = 0.2, assuming a February forecast of 19 A 3-month weighted moving average, with weights 0.60, 0.3, and 0.1. With 0.6 applied to the most recent past.
- Consider the following yearly demand values for a particular product. Year Demand 1 360 389 3 410 4 381 368 374 (a) Produce forecast for year 4,5,6, and 7 by using 3-week moving average. (b) Produce forecast for year 4,5,6, and 7 by using 3-week weighted moving average where weights are as follows; wt–3 = .1, wt-2 = .3, and wt-1 = .6. (c) Produce forecast for year 4,5,6, and 7 by using exponential smoothing with a = .2. Please assume that the forecast for the first year is 360.Forecast sales for the 11th period. For leveling, use exponential smoothing 0.20 and moving average 3 for averaging; and linear and exponential functions for trend data. Assume an initial exponential forecast of 600 units in period 2 if you decide to use it (i.e., no forecast for period 1). Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sales 648 590 631 769 745 856 300 962 990 1100Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third quarter of this year. Note: the 1st quarter is Jan, Feb, and Mar; 2nd quarter id Apr. May, Jun; 3rd quarter Jul, Aug, Sep; 4th quarter Oct, Nov, Dec. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LAST YEAR 145 165 170 210 220 245 190 180 175 245 270 295 THIS YEAR 145 170 180 235 275 225 What is the forecast for the third quarter?