Type of Intelligence
Threat Risk (likely/unlikely)
Explanation (25–50 words)
Drop in U.S. tourism to country Unlikely
This is not a likely threat; a drop
in US tourism could be caused by other factors like weather, economic conditions, or the time of year. Tourism may be declining as a result of these examples.
Increase in U.S. tourists falling ill suddenly and without clear explanation
Likely
Prior to COVID-19 epidemic this is not a huge threat for United States. In recent years, the threat of illness has increased due to new pandemics such as Ebola or COVID-19.
Increase in the radicalization of locals
Likely
Particularly after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, radicalized terrorist groups have increased drastically in numbers and are pushing for attacks against Western nations.
Sports team’s fans rioting in the
streets to celebrate winning the
championship
Unlikely
There are times when these riots can turn dangerous, but they are usually an occasion for celebratory gatherings. Minor infrastructure damage is expected in the city. There will be no long-term effects from this.
Severe economic downturn over the previous 12 months
Likely
A downturn in the economy can
lead to a large amount of poverty and crime. Consequently, America is at risk
of espionage and attack.
Surge in population migration out of country X to a neighboring country
Likely
Thousands of illegal immigrants are currently crossing the southern border, and sanctuary cities allow them to stay and commit crimes without consequences. Consequently, Americans are exposed to terrorism and attack. An unknown number of terrorists have already made their way across the Mexico border.
